El Nino conditions have set in and may strengthen during the southwest monsoon, raising concerns for India's largest sowing window. The neutral Indian Ocean Dipole offers no offset, and the IMD has lowered its monsoon forecast to below-normal. This development threatens crop output, impacting inflation and the rural economy.

In India, El Nino is historically associated with weaker monsoons and harsher summers; the current season is tracking that pattern in some ways. | India News

El Nino has returned to the tropical Pacific. The India Meteorological Department warns it may intensify during the southwest monsoon. The government has identified 197 vulnerable…