As the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for the fourth month, “one development stands out: prices have become remarkably calm,” JPMorgan analysts said.

China has reduced oil imports since the start of the Iran war, capping global crude prices.

"Each additional month of disruption would lift average prices by roughly $5 in 3Q26 and $15 in 4Q26, driven primarily by accelerating inventory depletion."

Oil prices are likely to rise further as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and once it opens, the market will take months to normalize.

Oil prices remain capped near $92 as a Trump-brokered ceasefire eases supply fears, while weakening Chinese demand raises fresh concerns about demand destruction.

As the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for the fourth month, “one development stands out: prices have become remarkably calm,” JPMorgan analysts said.

Global oil prices remain surprisingly low despite the ongoing war in Iran. China's drastic cut in oil imports is a major factor. Demand destruction and increased production from…

China's crude oil imports dropped 29% to an eight-year low during the Iran war, keeping Brent crude under $100 as Beijing drew down strategic reserves.