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US plans military escalation in Iran amid high tensions: Hegseth
US plans military escalation in Iran amid high tensions. Iran leadership status by end of 2026 at 3.3% YES.
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China rejects US sanctions over Iran, vows to protect firms
China rejects US sanctions over Iran, increasing tensions. Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 at 16.5% YES.
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US Navy strike on Iranian supertanker raises regional tensions
US Navy strikes Iranian supertanker, raising regional tensions. US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 26.5% YES, Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization at 37.5% YE
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US plans military escalation in Iran amid high tensions: Hegseth
US plans military escalation in Iran amid high tensions. Iran leadership status by end of 2026 at 3.3% YES.
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Saudi Arabia, UAE conduct secret attacks in Iran, escalating regional tensions
Saudi Arabia and UAE conduct secret attacks in Iran, raising tensions. Iran closes its airspace by May 31 at 37.5% YES; US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 at
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Pezeshkian emphasizes unity as Iran consolidates post-Khamenei transition
Iran's leadership change market rises to 34.5% YES for a transition by December 31. Leadership change by May 31 at 7.5% YES.
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CENTCOM signals readiness as US-Iran nuclear deal prospects dim
CENTCOM signals decreased likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31. Deal at 7.5% YES.
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Israel, US consider renewed military attacks on Iran amid tensions
Israel and the US consider renewed military attacks on Iran. Permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 at 17.5% YES.
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Trump warns Iran: negotiate or face destruction amid nuclear tensions
Trump warns Iran to negotiate or face destruction. US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 at 55.5% YES, while Israel-Iran peace deal by June 30, 2026 at 17.5% YES.
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US rejects Iran's 14-point proposal amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
US rejects Iran's proposal amid tensions. Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by December 31 at 76.5% YES.
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Khamenei's death fuels speculation on Iran leadership change by year-end
Khamenei's death raises speculation about Iran's leadership change. Leadership change by December 31 at 34.5% YES.
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Trump signals openness to 20-year limit on Iran nuclear program
Trump shows willingness for a 20-year limit on Iran's nuclear program. Deal before 2027 now at 61.5% YES.