US rejects Iran's proposal amid tensions. Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by December 31 at 76.5% YES.

Iran maintains control over the Strait of Hormuz, affecting shipping traffic. 20 ships transiting by May 31 at 61% YES.

Saudi Arabia and UAE conduct secret attacks in Iran, raising tensions. Iran closes its airspace by May 31 at 37.5% YES; US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 at

US Centcom redirected 70 vessels amid Hormuz blockade enforcement. Blockade lifted by May 31 at 25.5% YES.

Thirty China-linked vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian supervision. Transit of 20 ships by May 31 at 64% YES.

CENTCOM signals decreased likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31. Deal at 7.5% YES.

Chinese vessels exit the Strait of Hormuz amid opposition to Iranian tolls. Strait traffic by May 15 at 0.1% YES.

Iran imposes a $1M toll on Strait of Hormuz transits, affecting shipping. At least 20 ships to transit by May 31 at 68% YES.

US-Iran tensions ease with assurances on the Strait of Hormuz. WTI Crude Oil at $150 in May 2026 now at 2.2% YES.

Trump warns Iran to negotiate or face destruction. US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 at 55.5% YES, while Israel-Iran peace deal by June 30, 2026 at 17.5% YES.

Iran ships transit Hormuz freely amid US tensions. US blockade lift by May 31, 2026 at 23.5% YES.

US rejects Iran's proposal amid tensions. Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by December 31 at 76.5% YES.

Trump shows willingness for a 20-year limit on Iran's nuclear program. Deal before 2027 now at 61.5% YES.

Trump rejects Iran's nuclear proposal, reducing deal prospects. US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 at 28% YES.