The Greek economy is facing a triple front of pressure ahead of winter, as the new energy turmoil simultaneously threatens family budgets, product and service prices, and the resilience of government planning.
All eyes are now on October and the start of the heating oil season, as the course of international energy prices will determine to a significant extent the size of this winter’s bill.
The international energy shock triggered by the resurgence of tension in the Middle East makes the government’s plan to reduce electricity costs over a three-year horizon and increase the heating allowance from 2027 a luxury, and forces it to seek additional fiscal space for immediate support measures, in order to relieve households and prevent the energy crisis from spreading to the real economy.
The prices of motor fuels remain stable at over €2 per liter, without, in fact, the latest price increases on the international market having yet to be fully reflected in retail. Despite subsidies from the government and refineries, consumers are currently paying 20.7% more for gasoline than they did at the start of the Middle East conflict, while the corresponding increase for diesel fuel is 32.3%.
The heating bill is set to be even heavier. Based on current international prices, market players estimate that if heating oil were to be made available now, its price would be around €1.81/lt, compared to €1.09/lt at the start of last year. That is an increase of around 65%.
