Vietnam’s economy grew 8.2 per cent in the first half of 2026 — the country’s fastest growth in years. Slogans such as ‘the era of national rise’ or ‘double-digit growth’ fill the national press. But Vietnam’s growth is generated almost entirely by one side of a divided economy. A small group of foreign-invested and government-favoured firms thrive on disproportionate access to credit, land and policy attention, while small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) struggle to compete for what remains.
Vietnam’s strong growth is based on gains in industrial production, exports and inbound foreign investment. Industrial production volume was 10.8 per cent higher in the first half of 2026 than the same period in the previous year — Vietnam’s fastest first-half expansion since 2019 — with manufacturing alone increasing by 11.4 per cent. Exports climbed by 21 per cent while foreign direct investment disbursements also increased by 11.2 per cent year-on-year, reaching US$13 billion during the first half of 2026.
But the distribution of this growth is uneven. Despite accounting for only 3.5 per cent of all firms, foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs) made up 80 per cent of the value of Vietnam’s exports. This marks a 26 per cent annual increase, nearly six times the 4.6 per cent growth seen by their domestic counterparts.
