The global economy has, for now, bent without breaking. The system has absorbed the U.S.-Iran war better than expected thanks to strategic reserve drawdowns and rerouted supply.
Yet, the margin for error is narrowing as portfolios face a dual shock from energy and bond markets. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva describes the moment as a “tug of war” — a Gulf energy supply shock dragging on growth on one side, an AI investment boom providing “unexpected lift” on the other. Neither is winning decisively.
The Hormuz Chokepoint
The leading global consultancy Wood Mackenzie has remained optimistic. The firm has even upgraded its 2026 baseline global GDP forecast from 2.3% to 2.5%.
The forecast, however, rests on “a single critical assumption: that normal energy transit through the Strait of Hormuz resumes soon.”
