Heavy flooding across Central Luzon and Metro Manila in late August 2026 showed how monsoon variability has become more destructive. Rainfall totals exceeded 300 to 400 millimeters in just three days, a volume that historically would have been spread across a month. The Pampanga and Pasig rivers overflowed, while urban drainage systems were overwhelmed by the concentrated rainfall.
The event was the result of several interacting drivers: atmospheric dynamics, ocean warming, topographic amplification, climate change and ecological degradation. Together, these factors have contributed to the persistence of Habagat into the Ber months, disrupting what was once considered a predictable seasonal transition.
The Ber months — September to December — traditionally signaled the onset of Amihan, bringing cooler, drier conditions favorable for harvest and post-harvest activities. Recent climate variability, amplified by La Niña and warming seas, has prolonged Habagat rains into September and October, disrupting cropping calendars, post-harvest drying and flood management.
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The expectation that the Ber months mean Amihan has weakened amid climate variability and ecological disruption. Extended Habagat seasons are reshaping the agricultural and disaster risk landscapes of Luzon. Scientific evidence cited in this report points to atmospheric interactions, ocean warming, ENSO variability and ecological degradation as drivers of this shift. Together, they intensify rainfall, delay the onset of cooler winds and increase flood risks across rice-producing areas and urban centers.FEATURED STORIES
