The monthlong lull in fighting between Iran and the United States ended this week with a renewed exchange of fire, dragging the region back to a dangerous – and potentially unsustainable – military stalemate.

The US military struck Iran again Tuesday, prompting Tehran to attack Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait in defiance of a warning from President Donald Trump that any retaliation would see Iran “hit much harder.”

The exchanges were limited, unlike the fiercer attacks that took place over a month ago, which experts say signals an unwillingness from both parties to return to full-scale fighting.

“So far, both have largely concentrated their attacks on military rather than civilian or energy targets. And despite threats from senior Iranian officials, Tehran has not resumed attacks against Saudi Arabia or the UAE,” said Danny Citrinowicz, the former head of the Iran branch of Israeli military intelligence, in a post on X.

Nonetheless, the current situation is perilous, with room for miscalculation that risks pulling both sides back into all-out conflict.