President Donald Trump announced that oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz has reached 18 million barrels per day, a figure that would represent a dramatic recovery in one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. The claim, if accurate, would put transit volumes back near pre-conflict levels and signal a return to normalcy in a waterway that handles roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply.
The problem: independent ship-tracking firms aren’t seeing anything close to those numbers.
A growing gap between claims and data
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage between Iran and Oman, has been the world’s most important oil transit corridor for decades. Before the US-Iran conflict that erupted with military strikes on February 28, the strait typically handled between 18 and 20 million barrels per day. At its worst moments during the hostilities, vessel traffic through the strait collapsed from roughly 100 ships per day to as few as five.
Trump’s 18 million barrel figure fits within that historical range, suggesting the waterway has essentially returned to business as usual. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has made similar assertions, claiming that on June 6 a record 19 million barrels transited in a single day. Wright also stated that on a Monday in early September, more than 17 million barrels moved through the strait, which he called the highest figure since the February conflict began.
