UBS analysts say China’s lithography programme is at roughly the stage ASML reached in 2004 and will not produce a viable EUV alternative within a decade. They also expect China to reach high-volume manufacturing of immersion DUV machines in two to five years, which is the category the Dutch government controls through export licences.
China will not match ASML’s most advanced machine this decade. Its lithography programme sits roughly where ASML stood in 2004, UBS analysts said, Bloomberg reported.
The comparison comes from patents. Analysts led by Francois-Xavier Bouvignies looked at light source and laser subsystems and found maturity comparable to ASML fifteen years before it mass produced extreme ultraviolet tools.
The second finding matters more in Europe. UBS expects China to reach high-volume manufacturing of immersion deep ultraviolet machines within two to five years, in a bloc TNW has reported has no chance of chip independence.
The price gap explains the appetite. ASML sells immersion DUV systems at close to $90M, against more than $200M for its EUV gear.
