Global wheat prices have risen in recent weeks due to damage and disruption at Ukrainian ports and fuel shortages in parts of Russia. But the timing of the price increases will not incentivise increased planting domestically as it is already too late in the season. When the season started here in May many factors were working against South African wheat farmers. Global wheat prices were under pressure due to ample global supplies, which led to lower domestic prices at the start of the planting season. This discouraged an increase in the area under cultivation.Input costs, mainly fuel and fertiliser, were also high at the start of the planting period as the US-Iran war disrupted the production and transportation of these farm inputs in the Middle East. For a typical wheat farmer fertiliser accounts for about 35% of input costs, and fuel about 13%. With these key inputs increasing sharply farmers were under financial strain as the season began.Consequently, the farmers reduced the area they planted for wheat. In the preliminary planting data from the Crop Estimates Committee the early signal was that plantings would fall to their lowest level in nearly 100 years, at about 473,900ha. But when the committee released its updated planting estimate at the end of August the planting figure was raised slightly to 479,500ha, the lowest area in 13 years.The decline in plantings points to huge challenges facing the domestic wheat industry. From an annual perspective, plantings are down 7% from the previous season. The decline in plantings is mainly in the Western Cape, a province that usually accounts for two thirds of South Africa’s wheat plantings.The wheat plantings in the Western Cape are primarily rain-fed. Therefore, if the weather conditions were broadly favourable despite all the challenges weighing on plantings, the harvest would still be decent. But that is not what we have experienced. Over the past few months, the Western Cape has experienced drier than usual weather conditions.As a result, the wheat crop in the various regions of the province is in poor condition. Thus, it was unsurprising when the Crop Estimates Committee placed its first South African 2026-27 winter wheat production estimate at 1.8-million tonnes. This is down 8% from the previous season and the lowest expected harvest in eight years.In addition to the expected lower harvest in the Western Cape other provinces, while primarily under irrigation, are also not expected to see an uptick in production. In fact, there is an expected mild decline in the winter wheat harvest in all major provinces. In addition to weather issues, high input costs may also have led to a slight decline in input use in some of these regions, which would subsequently negatively affect yields.It is still early days in the 2026-27 winter wheat production season, but it is already clear that the South African wheat industry is under pressure. Global prices are also no longer as low as they were at the start of the season in May, after a surge in prices because of the Black Sea conflict and the destruction of shipping infrastructure in Ukraine. For some farmers the price increase will help, but it doesn’t change the fact that planting has already been reduced. From a consumer perspective these figures indicate that South Africa will likely see an increase in wheat imports to about 2-million tonnes, up from 1.8-million tonnes in the past season. Sourcing supplies will not be an issue as there are ample wheat supplies on the world market. But prices will be slightly higher than a few months ago.• Sihlobo is a presidential envoy on agriculture and land, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa and a senior fellow in Stellenbosch University’s department of agricultural economics.