The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 287.26 US cents a pound in July, up 15.4 per cent from June, with Arabica prices rising faster than Robusta
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Global coffee prices surged during July on factors such as weather issues in Brazil, strengthening El Nino outlook and concerns over tightening Arabica supplies, according to the International Coffee Organisation (ICO).The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 287.26 US cents a pound in July, up 15.4 per cent from June, with Arabica prices rising faster than Robusta. Colombian Milds and Brazilian Naturals rose 18.1 per cent and 17.9 per cent, respectively, while Other Milds gained 16.5 per cent and Robustas 9.1 per cent, ICO said in its latest market report for July.“The price surge reflected weather-related concerns in Brazil, a strengthening El Niño outlook and tightening immediately deliverable Arabica supplies, with US-certified stocks falling by 30 per cent to their lowest level since January 2024. Substantial increases in ICE margin requirements, which affected financing needs, market participation and liquidity, may have also contributed to the sharp short-term price movements.” ICO said.“The strengthening El Niño outlook added uncertainty to the prospective global supply situation. On 9 July, coinciding with the 9.3 per cent surge in the I-CIP, the US Climate Prediction Center reported a 97 per cent probability that El Niño would persist through early spring 2027 and an 81 per cent probability of a very strong event during October–December 2026, potentially ranking among the most intense events recorded since 1950. This outlook pointed to an increased risk of regional rainfall and temperature anomalies that could affect coffee production in Asia and South America in late 2026 and in 2027,” ICO said.Prices in India also rose largely in tandem with the global prices and are continuing to rule firm ahead of the new crop year starting October.Following the global price rise, Arabica prices were up about 10-12 per cent, the increase in Robustas was slightly at a slower pace, said M Salman Baseer, Chairman, Karnataka Planters Association (KPA). The relatively low rainfall, so far, is seen aiding the 2026-27 crop with fewer pest and disease attacks and less berry droppings, while deficit rains may pose challenge next year, he said.As per the Coffee Board data, the farm gate raw coffee prices ruled higher in the range of ₹24600-25100 per 50 kg bag of Arabica Parchment as on August 28, as compared to ₹22,300 -22800 levels on June 1. Arabica Cherry prices ruled at ₹13600-15250 levels (12750-14250 levels on June 1), while Robusta Parchment are slightly higher at ₹18000-18500 levels (17500-18200) and Robust Cherry, the widely produced variety in the country were ruling around ₹10,000-10,850 levels (9300-10,000 on June 1).Praveen Kolimarla of Agrani Coffee and Commodities said the Indian prices have adjusted upwards long before the ICO calculations. “We are already overpriced and that’s being reflected in the premiums and differentials over the London and New York terminals,” he said.Differentials for Indian Robusta Parchment AB are ruling higher at $1300-$1500 per tonne over the London terminal prices, while differentials for the Robusta Cherry AB is up by $350-415 per tonne. Similarly, for Indian Arabica Plantation A, the premium differential is about 15-18 cents per pound over the ICE New York Terminal prices, whereas Indian Arabica Cherry is trading at a discount of 25-30 cents per pound.Published on August 31, 2026
