Sam Altman believes OpenAI will have a system it internally classifies as Artificial General Intelligence before 2026 ends. Prediction markets, which tend to be brutally honest aggregators of collective wisdom, are giving that outcome somewhere between a 9% and 15% chance of actually happening.
What OpenAI is actually claiming
In an interview with TIME magazine, Altman laid out OpenAI’s timeline with characteristic ambition. The company believes it can reach AGI, which it defines as systems capable of outperforming humans at economically significant tasks, by the close of this year.
Altman was careful to note that OpenAI is “not quite yet” at AGI.
OpenAI’s Chief Research Officer Mark Chen offered a more granular assessment, stating the organization is roughly “80 percent of the way” to achieving AGI.
