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On July 4 last year, trade, industry and competition minister Parks Tau told parliament that the rollout of the national policy on the commercialisation of hemp and cannabis would be supported by aggregation schemes, dedicated hubs and indigenous knowledge initiatives, targeting annual growth of 10% from what he described as a R14bn industry base.This was more than an ambitious line in a budget speech. The department incorporated the target into its annual performance planning, in effect turning years of cannabis commercialisation promises into a measurable economic objective. On the minister’s own baseline, 10% means another R1.4bn in annual economic activity. For an industry that has spent years hearing about investment, rural development, exports and job creation, that ought to be encouraging. It also raises a fairly basic question: what exactly is the R14bn industry government expects to grow, and through what lawful commercial pathway are businesses supposed to participate in it? South Africa is hardly short of cannabis policy. Cabinet adopted industrialisation and commercialisation as a policy direction in 2019, the National Cannabis Master Plan followed, and President Cyril Ramaphosa subsequently placed cannabis and hemp within the national economic programme. The department spoke of a potential formalised industry worth R28bn and 10,000-25,000 jobs across cultivation, processing, manufacturing and related value chains. By 2023 the country had presidential support, proposed incentives, standards work, interdepartmental structures and even a cannabis mini-Phakisa intended to accelerate implementation. Yet by November that year parliament was openly asking whether the Cannabis Master Plan had “gone missing”. What followed resembles Project Titanic: piecing together a cannabis shipwreck from government figures floating in different directions. Tau used R14bn as the baseline for growth. Other parliamentary material referred to a current cannabis and hemp industry of R10bn. The R28bn figure continued appearing as the potential value of a formalised industry, while parliament was subsequently told that South Africa’s illicit cannabis economy could be worth about R36bn. Those figures do not necessarily contradict one another. They may describe different market segments, periods or methodologies. A potential market is not current turnover, an illicit economy is not a formal industry, and hemp, medical cannabis and broader adult-use activity are different value chains. That is precisely why the R14bn baseline needs explaining. If the government intends to measure annual growth against it, parliament and industry should know what is included, what is excluded and what evidence will establish whether another R1.4bn of economic activity has actually been created. Behind the numbers sits the larger institutional problem. South Africa’s cannabis programme stretches across 11 departments and public entities carrying different parts of the policy, regulatory and implementation burden. At the beginning, that complexity was a reasonable explanation for slower progress because cannabis touches agriculture, medicine regulation, health, justice, policing, trade, small business development, science and indigenous knowledge. However, almost eight years after the Constitutional Court’s Prince judgment, co-ordination cannot continue to substitute for implementation. Farmers, traditional growers, investors and businesses have watched departments wait for other departments, standards wait for policies, and policies wait for further consultation, while those expected to build the eventual industry continue carrying the economic consequences. Part of the problem is that South Africa repeatedly treats cannabis as one regulatory question when it is several. Private adult use and cultivation operate within a constitutional and statutory framework that does not create a general commercial market. Hemp follows an agricultural and industrial route, while medical cannabis operates through medicine legislation. Broader commercial activity raises separate questions around production, products, market access, taxation, consumer protection and enforcement. These problems do not require identical solutions, yet they repeatedly become trapped inside the same national process. The department said in September last year that the hemp and cannabis commercialisation policy was expected to proceed through cabinet approval and public comment, while an overarching Cannabis Bill was expected to reach parliament only by mid-2027. The government is therefore promoting measurable industry growth while important parts of the framework required for broader lawful commercial participation remain unfinished. The consequences are practical. A hemp permit may allow somebody to plant, but cultivation without dependable offtake, processing capacity and downstream markets is not industrialisation. A specialised medical pathway is not a substitute for a domestic commercial economy. Traditional growers cannot build sustainable livelihoods from recognition in policy documents, and entrepreneurs cannot employ people against a market access mechanism that does not yet exist. H3 has proposed a controlled route through existing policy and lawful regulatory mechanisms while the longer legislative process continues. The premise is to separate private adult use, hemp, medical access and broader commercial activity rather than forcing every cannabis problem through the same regulatory eye of a very small needle. The proposal does not pretend that existing prohibitions have disappeared or that a general commercial cannabis market is already lawful. It proposes controlled mechanisms and structured pilot environments through which government can test implementation, gather evidence and resolve practical regulatory problems while completing the longer-term legislative framework. After eight years South Africa should be capable of legislating and implementing at the same time, particularly where controlled mechanisms can provide evidence for the regulations and systems the government is still trying to design. The private sector has meanwhile invested its own capital, developed cultivation capacity, products, systems and skills, and attempted to navigate a fragmented regulatory environment. In many respects South Africa’s cannabis economy has funded and developed itself while the government continues promising to commercialise it. At the present pace, some of the pioneers may require an old-age home, or perhaps a hemp cemetery, before the implementation plan arrives. Yet the department still wants another 10% growth. Wonderful. We are ready. Where do we apply to enter the R14bn industry the government wants us to grow by 10%? • Botha, a legal strategist and cannabis policy specialist, is cofounder of H3 Legal Solutions.
