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Photo by Peter Power /Peter PowerAn economist has put the job losses from the new U.S. tariffs at an estimated 87,200.Enjoy the latest local, national and international news.Exclusive articles by Conrad Black, Barbara Kay and others. Plus, special edition NP Platformed and First Reading newsletters and virtual events.Unlimited online access to National Post.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword.Support local journalism.Enjoy the latest local, national and international news.Exclusive articles by Conrad Black, Barbara Kay and others. Plus, special edition NP Platformed and First Reading newsletters and virtual events.Unlimited online access to National Post.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword.Support local journalism.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountorTrevor Tombe, a professor of economics at the University of Calgary, estimated in an analysis published by The Hub that the tariffs put a little over 87,000 Canadian jobs at risk. He said in an email to National Post that his model produces 87,200, and that he does not want to portray false precision in a number carrying that much uncertainty. “87K is no different than 90K.”The analysis said losses on that scale would push the national unemployment rate from 6.4 per cent to 6.8. What happens to the rate depends on what the workers who lose those jobs decide to do, Tombe wrote, because the rate counts only people who are working or looking for work. “If they exit the labour force, then they’re no longer in the denominator either so the unemployment may not change. If they search for other work, then the unemployment would increase. We can’t know.”Get a dash of perspective along with the trending news of the day in a very readable format.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of NP Posted will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againThe tariffs took effect Saturday, hours after Prime Minister Mark Carney suspended trade talks with Washington. Carney said in a statement they cover roughly $28 billion in Canadian goods, and that Canada will match them dollar-for-dollar.About 52,000 of the jobs Tombe counted sit at exporters hit directly. The other 35,000 sit at the suppliers and service firms that sell to them, which is why the losses reach provinces the tariffs barely touch.Ontario would take the largest share at roughly 36,000 jobs, Tombe estimated, followed by 18,000 in Quebec, 11,000 in British Columbia and 9,000 in Alberta. Transportation and warehousing would take the largest hit of any sector once those indirect effects are counted, with trucking a significant share as trade volumes fall.Nine thousand jobs is about 0.3 per cent of Alberta’s labour force, Tombe wrote. The province went into the tariffs with an unemployment rate of 7.0 per cent in July, the second highest among the provinces and tied with New Brunswick, according to Statistics Canada.Carney said Saturday Canada’s countermeasures take effect on Sept. 8, the Tuesday after Labour Day, and will be concentrated in steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper and electronics. They will also cover goods already hit by earlier American tariffs.Direct losses land in agriculture, electronics, textiles, furniture and plastics, Tombe wrote in the analysis. The estimate rests on an assumption he calls overly simplistic, that a 50 per cent tariff produces a 50 per cent drop in sales.He wrote that imports of the goods Canada tariffed last year fell roughly in line with those tariffs, and that assuming the same one-for-one relationship here is not a bad approach. “What the actual effect is depends on factors that are not currently knowable, especially how long the tariffs last.”Tombe wrote that nothing in his numbers changed when the tariffs went live. “They were always forward looking estimates, and the uncertainty remains as high now as before.”Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here. Join the Conversation This website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. 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