New renewables and batteries improve grid reliability outlook, but more needs to get built on time, AEMO says

The immediate threat to the reliability of Australia’s main grid has been pushed back into the next decade, provided there is the “timely delivery” of new renewable energy and storage, according to the Australian Energy Market Operator.

A year ago, AEMO’s Electricity Statement of Opportunity (ESOO) had forecast reliability challenges for parts of the National Electricity Market (NEM) as soon as the present financial year.

In 2026’s ESOO, however, the NEM had “a stronger pipeline of grid-scale generation and storage than in recent years” with reliability predicted to be maintained to 2033-34 for the NSW, South Australia and Victoria, and for Tasmania up to the following year.

Still, securing that reliability as demand continues to grow and coal-fired power plants shut down “remains highly dependent on timely delivery, operational availability, and the ability of resources to sustain supply during extended periods of system stress”, AEMO said.

Indeed, to reflect that dependence, AEMO included an additional “Committed and Anticipated Developments” reliability assessment to reflect projects that are “subject to greater delivery uncertainty”.