The Conference Board modeled a series of scenarios: Baseline (using Congressional Budget Office data based on current trends), a good-case (in which federal deficits are cut roughly in half, in line with current targeting proposals), and a bad-case (in which deficit levels grow to 9% of GDP rather than the current 6% to 7%).
The Conference Board also modeled two financial crisis scenarios—a default and an interest rate shock—which economists like Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio have long been concerned about.
Even dismissing the most extreme negative outcomes, consumers still stand to lose thousands if policymakers don’t act to reduce spending.
For example, the report models a family saving to buy a $600,000 house in either 5 or 10 years, with a 20% down payment and a 30-year fixed mortgage. The report does not provide a methodology for calculating rates offered in 2031 and 2036, but concludes that total payments over three decades for a home bought in 2031 come to $2.89m, and $2.8m in 2036.
These are the payments in the baseline scenario. However, under the good-case scenario, in which the government cuts its borrowing and interest is lower, this figure is reduced by $53,000 for buyers in 2031, or by more than $100,000 for buyers in 2036.
