The Japanese yen is gaining ground against the dollar as traders increasingly bet that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at its September meeting, a move that would push borrowing costs in the world’s fourth-largest economy to levels not seen in three decades.
Markets are now pricing in approximately 76-80% probability of a rate hike at the BOJ’s September 17-18 meeting. That’s a dramatic shift from the roughly 24% odds traders were assigning just after the central bank’s July gathering. By October, the implied probability climbs to around 96%.
The road from zero to one, and possibly beyond
On June 16, the BOJ raised its short-term policy rate to 1%, marking the highest level since 1995.
At the July 30-31 meeting, BOJ officials held rates steady but made their discomfort with inflation abundantly clear. Rising energy prices and the persistent weakness of the yen have been pushing import costs higher, nudging Japan’s underlying Consumer Price Index toward or above the central bank’s 2% target.
