Even in Nigel Farage’s victory there was confusion.Some three hours before the result was declared in the Clacton by-election, the Reform UK leader told his supporters in a speech at a nearby party that he would not be attending the count. “I’m sad to say that after 33 years of being a candidate in active politics, I’ve been advised tonight by Essex Police that there is an organised campaign to disrupt and degrade the result.”A Reform UK spokesperson said: “Essex Police advised Nigel not to attend the count tonight due to a credible threat against him.”Not true. Said the police in a statement: “We have a proportionate and robust policing operation to ensure the safety and security of all participants in the count.”It was typical of a poll that defied reason, despite Mr Farage’s best efforts to portray it as somehow decisive and historic. Characteristic of a politician who also refuses to bow to convention.Mr Farage already was the Clacton MP, having been elected by a thumping majority in 2024. Faced with a parliamentary inquiry into his receipt of a cash gift of £5 million ($6.75 million) from the crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne and claiming he was the victim of an establishment witch-hunt, he resigned and sought the endorsement of the public.Count Binface gestures while standing with other candidates after Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage was declared the winner for the Clacton by-election on Friday. ReutersShow caption: Count Binface gestures while standing with other candidates …But none of the other main political parties stood against him, meaning he was reduced to fighting against an array of independent candidates. Perhaps it was the prospect of sharing a platform with a range of single-issue campaigners, comedians and publicity-seekers, rather than serious folks, that so dissuaded him. The thought of witnessing Count Binface, a man with a dustbin over his head celebrate receiving a career-best 9,445 votes, may have been too much.It would only have served to highlight the recklessness, some might say madness, in Mr Farage’s strategy. After all, having received 22,239 votes, he now returns to Westminster to still face a probe that may well cause his suspension as an MP and trigger another by-election. The good people of Clacton may be prevailed upon to do this all again in the coming weeks.Then, having called his bluff as they undoubtedly did by agreeing not to fight the first ballot, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens will compete second-time round. Then and only then will we receive a true verdict on how badly Mr Farage has been wounded by the allegations of financial irregularities, whether he can survive as Reform UK leader and if, as he would have us believe, he really is a genuine contender for 10 Downing Street.Today, that last likelihood appears distant. There is no doubt that whatever he maintains, Mr Farage’s standing is badly weakened. Not only from the revelations regarding his finances, but from the resurgence of Labour under new Prime Minister Andy Burnham and, sensing Mr Farage’s vulnerability and capitalising from the defenestration and replacement of Sir Keir Starmer, an emboldened Conservative party. Suddenly, Mr Farage’s progress does not look so assured as it once did.That was borne out in part by the by-election. He won 63.3 per cent of the vote, a greater amount than in the general election two years ago. But it was lower than the 71 per cent secured by David Davis in a recent by-election that the other main parties also boycotted.Mr Farage’s star does appear to be waning, and he is increasingly given to lashing out and exhibiting flashes of temper, none of which transfers well to the national or international leadership stage.That, however, is not by any means saying he is in permanent decline. Mr Farage is someone who presents himself as a loner, a battler taking a sword to the bigger, established and more powerful figures. It would be foolish indeed to write him off. While his political rivals may jump up and down about his financial affairs – and it suits them to do so – the public has been relatively unmoved, as the by-election showed.He was once buoyed by close association with Donald Trump and that, too, is diminished. Mr Farage had to endure the humiliation of journeying to Florida, expecting to be received by the US President, but instead was not granted an audience. While that was taken as a sign of distancing, Mr Trump is equally capable of changing his position and embracing him.QuoteWhile Farage's political rivals may jump up and down about his financial affairs – and it suits them to do so – the public has been relatively unmoved, as the by-election showedLikewise, Mr Burnham is pledging to foster closer links with the EU, a move that enjoys widespread business support. The calls for rapprochement in the face of global economic uncertainty, two major wars and the ongoing tariffs fallout are louder than they have ever been since the UK exit. Again, it would be a mistake to assume that undermines Mr Farage, that the great Brexit architect is undone.The scar caused by that ferocious debate and the ultimate decision has not gone away. The clamouring for some sort of return, or at least a thawing of relations leading to stronger economic ties, should it harden into a determined diplomatic push, will reopen those wounds. Brexit 2.0, however, would be coloured by something else, which is the continuing illegal migrants crisis. Since the EU referendum, successive British prime ministers have tried and failed to stop the small boats crossing the English Channel. Their failure has bolstered Mr Farage.Protectionism and securing borders is the prevailing theme, politically and economically, domestically and globally. No one is better placed, in the minds of a large swathe of the British populace, seemingly, to articulate that stance than Mr Farage.He still then has plenty to aim for. He might find he is soon having to do it once more where Clacton is concerned. Then, that will be because he has been found officially to have transgressed. For most elected politicians, that would signal the end of their careers. With Mr Farage though, nothing is ever so clear-cut. Those who write him off, in the UK and abroad, do so at their peril.