Nigel Farage’s victory in Clacton is the least surprising UK by-election result for many years.

Given his relatively comfortable win at the 2024 general election and the fact that none of the main parties fielded a candidate, no one seriously thought the Reform leader would lose.

But while Farage called the by-election in an effort to shore up his political position amid a parliamentary probe into Reform’s finances, it is difficult to conclude the gambit worked for him – an impression reinforced by the fact he didn’t even turn up to hear himself declared the winner this morning.

Shorts

Farage’s 22,239 votes was an increase on the 21,225 he won in 2024. Reform spinners including MP Lee Anderson have been quick out of the blocks to claim that Farage increasing his vote on a lower turnout of 44.37% (compared to 58.7% at the general election) is a huge success.