You're reading an excerpt from Al-Monitor China-Middle East, where we analyze China's deepening engagement with the region. To get this newsletter in your inbox weekly, sign up here.Nearly six months into the US war in Iran and with no clear exit strategy for Washington, a new security reality is emerging in the Gulf, one that plays into China’s hands and its vision for the region.Last Friday, the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a joint defense agreement that commits the three countries to treating an armed attack against one as an armed attack against all. The agreement, dubbed the Mecca pact, calls for greater military coordination, including intelligence sharing, training, logistics and defense industry cooperation.The pact’s practical significance remains uncertain, but it reflects an effort by regional powers to forge security arrangements that do not depend entirely on the United States.China has not officially endorsed the pact, but its state-run Xinhua news agency highlighted the agreement as a response to rising regional security concerns. More broadly, the pact fits Beijing’s long-running argument that Middle Eastern states should play a leading role in shaping regional security, rather than relying on an external power. China has promoted what it calls “common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security,” while arguing for a regional security architecture less dominated by outside actors.There are three ways Beijing could benefit from the agreement.1. Diversification away from the United States: Yun Sun, senior fellow and director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, told Al-Monitor, “So far, the pact has been viewed positively by China because it represents a diversification of security arrangement in the Middle East, which diminishes the central role of US as the security provider.”Sun said that China “has been calling for a regional organic security arrangement that is more independent from US influence.”Beijing has advanced versions of this idea for years. In 2022, during President Xi Jinping’s visit to Saudi Arabia, China said it would support Gulf states in maintaining their security and building a “new and comprehensive” security architecture for the Gulf. Chinese officials and scholars have also framed greater regional responsibility as a form of burden-sharing: Regional states provide more of their own security while outside powers play a less central role.This does not mean Beijing is looking to replace Washington as the region’s security guarantor. China lacks both the regional military presence and, so far, the appetite to take on that role. But a more diversified security landscape could give Beijing more room to deepen relationships that are already expanding across the region.The pact comes as Washington faces growing questions about the durability of its military posture in the Middle East. The US still maintains a substantial network of bases and forces across the Gulf and elsewhere in the region, but the war with Iran has exposed the vulnerabilities of that footprint. US military installations have come under repeated Iranian missile and drone attacks, prompting debate in Washington and among Gulf states about whether the US military presence needs to be reconfigured.For China, the opportunity is as political as it is military. A region in which Gulf states diversify their defense partnerships can be more receptive to Chinese diplomacy, arms sales, technology and investment without requiring Beijing to provide the kind of alliance guarantee that Washington has long supplied.2. The Pakistan card: Pakistan is one of Beijing’s closest defense partners and a major recipient of Chinese arms. The two countries have developed extensive cooperation, ranging from fighter aircraft and submarines to joint drone production. For example, Pakistan’s JF-17 fighter aircraft, which serves as the backbone of its air force, was jointly developed by the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and China’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group.