If you want to know what Wall Street actually thinks the Federal Reserve will do, ignore the talking heads and follow the money. Futures-derived probabilities from the CME FedWatch tool show roughly a 67.6% chance that the Fed will keep its target rate parked at 3.50%-3.75% after the September 16 FOMC meeting. That leaves about a 32% probability of a 25-basis-point hike to 3.75%-4.00%.
A divided committee, a divided market
The current rate range has been in place since the July 2026 FOMC meeting, where the committee voted 9-3 to hold steady. Three dissenting votes on a rate decision is the kind of split that makes traders sit up straighter. It signals genuine disagreement within the Fed about whether current policy is restrictive enough to tame inflation, or whether another turn of the screw is needed. Persistent inflationary pressures and ongoing supply chain disruptions have kept the debate alive.
The September meeting carries extra weight because it includes a fresh Summary of Economic Projections, the Fed’s quarterly release of updated forecasts for GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and the so-called “dot plot” showing where individual committee members expect rates to land over the coming quarters.
