Nate Silver‘s new midterm model launched Tuesday with a striking call: Democrats are 57.3% favorites to win the Senate, a chamber where they need a net gain of four seats against a 53-47 Republican majority.
Prediction market traders are more cautious. Polymarket gives Democrats a 53% chance as of Wednesday morning.
On the House, there is little argument. Silver’s model gives Democrats an 87% chance, and Polymarket traders sit at 88%.
The question may no longer be whether 2026 looks bad for Republicans. It’s whether President Donald Trump‘s political environment has deteriorated enough to overwhelm a Senate map that should favor them.
Why Silver Has Democrats Ahead
