Political data wonk Nate Silver put the probability of Democrats retaking the House in November at 85% or 90% but was pessimistic about the Senate turning blue. On the “All-In” podcast episode posted Monday, Silver said the prospect of Democratic Senate candidates having to win in red states to pull off a turnaround, along with the uncertainty around Maine Democratic nominee Graham Platner, spells trouble. He eventually put the upper-chamber probability at up to 60% in favor of Republicans.But the prognosticator neared certainty that the Dems would prevail in the lower chamber.Playing off prediction markets that he said are rating Democrats’ chances at 80% or 85% to take the House and 40% or 45% to take the Senate, he said: “Those both seem pretty reasonable to me. I think if anything it’s a little bit low on the House. I think it might be more like 85 or 90. My models surprise me sometimes.”Silver said he would have a full report in a few weeks after delays caused by the World Cup and redistricting.“We have been through a lot of elections that are inherently hard to forecast,” he continued. “The House is the one where everything kind of points in the same direction. Democrats are facing a very unpopular president, an economy that voters have a lot of anxiety about, Trump no new Middle Eastern wars. On top of that, the very, very long history of the president’s party drawing a backlash and performing poorly at the midterms.”But the Senate will be too steep a mountain to climb for Democrats, he predicted.“Even in a pretty blue environment, Democrats have to win some seats in red states,” he said.He cited the “big risk” in Maine where by all rights a Democrat should win but the problematic Democratic nominee Platner is “only” a couple of points ahead of GOP incumbent Susan Collins in the polls, he said.Silver, who rose to fame by predicting the winner in the presidential contest in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 election won by Barack Obama, said he would put the Maine Senate race at 50-50.