Democrats Suddenly Have a Real Shot at Flipping the Senate

By

Ed Kilgore,

political columnist for Intelligencer since 2015

Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola of Alaska

At the beginning of the 2026 election cycle, control of the U.S. Senate looked pretty secure for Republicans. They held 53 seats, plus the tiebreaking vote of Vice-President J.D. Vance. Of the 35 GOP-held seats up for grabs in 2026, 33 were in states Donald Trump had carried by at least 11 percent. One of the other two was held by two-term Republican senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina, a state that Trump had carried three times. The other was in Maine, where Susan Collins had won five times, usually by large margins. Two Democratic-held seats were in states (Georgia and Michigan) Trump had also won, albeit a bit more narrowly, while another (New Hampshire) looked quite winnable by the right Republican.