A moderate decline in international earnings would push Australia’s university sector closer to the breadline, almost doubling the number of institutions in deficit and jeopardising regional and suburban delivery.
An analysis of the accounts of the country’s publicly funded universities has found that a 20 per cent reduction in revenue from overseas students’ fees would land hard even on institutions without large international operations.
Data analyst Mark Rahimi said an uneven post-pandemic recovery had further concentrated foreign earnings among the five richest institutions, leaving “substantially thinner” financial margins elsewhere. “The Australian university system as a whole is not necessarily financially fragile but there is considerable variation between institutions,” said Rahimi, a senior research fellow with the University of Melbourne’s Centre for the Study of Higher Education.
“Some universities have substantial financial buffers, while others are operating close to break-even or…already in deficit. The same revenue shock can have quite different consequences across institutions.”
It is not merely an academic observation, as international education braces for a downturn for multiple reasons. Visa issuances to would-be university students applying from China – easily Australia’s biggest student source country, providing about 35 per cent of some universities’ total earnings – declined 23 per cent last financial year, amid plummeting Chinese demand for Western degrees.
