The intergalactic clash that is the Clacton by-election is almost over, and the result could be more interesting and portentous than often assumed. The now former MP and current candidate Nigel Farage declared that “this will be a people versus the establishment by-election”. However, the so-called “Establishment parties” declined to take part, even though the people of Clacton had no choice in the matter when Farage deliberately triggered it. So Farage has been spending quite some time “arguing with a bin” as Keir Starmer once put it, and not necessarily to his advantage.Who’s going to win?Farage. But, then again, what counts as “winning”? Given that he got 46.2 per cent of the vote against major party candidates at the 2024 general election (the Tories were a distant third on 27.9 per cent), and also with his national celebrity, he was always a certainty to prevail over his now principal rival, the satirical leader of the Gremloids from Sigma IX, Count Binface. The latest opinion polling shows Farage ahead on 73 per cent, and Count Binface on about 20 per cent. This is broadly similar to previous semi-contested by-elections. But Binface does seem to have the wider nation more on his side. The Ipsos poll suggests that among the British public, a third said they would prefer Count Binface to win the race, while only 21 per cent back the Reform UK leader. That’s really quite disturbing for a man who thinks he’ll be the next prime minister (Farage, that is, for the avoidance of doubt).What are Farage’s benchmarks?The magic number would be 21,225 votes, which is what he polled to become an MP at his eighth time of asking on 4 July 2024. That was on a 58.4 per cent turnout in Clacton. So he could (and likely will) achieve a larger vote share than he did two years ago, but if the turnout collapses he might not gain so much or even slip back in absolute terms, which would look embarrassing. Similar considerations apply to his majority, which was 8,405 last time. Broadly speaking, if Farage polls over, say, 80 per cent that will be unassailable. Nearer to 70 per cent would be perfectly acceptable; 60 per cent a touch disappointing and anything less than 50 per cent a disaster. Does Farage have alibis for a weak showing?Yes: holiday season; the main parties didn’t show up; it was a foregone conclusion. What are Count Binface’s benchmarks?For a man, sorry alien humanoid life form, who’s never saved his deposit, anything more than 5 per cent and getting his £500 back would be a triumph – lots of free publicity and a chance to ridicule Farage. Over 20 per cent would be even better, and more or less expected, while anything more than say 33 per cent would be a breakthrough for Binfaceism, and actually a grim omen for Farage, who’ll probably face a second by-election after the parliamentary Standards Commissioner has finished with him. Count Binface’s best previous performance was a whole 1 per cent for the London mayoralty in 2021 and again in 2024, when the space lord was delighted to vanquish the far-right Britain First candidate. A low point, as he reminds us, was the late-night 69 he had with Boris Johnson at a leisure centre in Uxbridge in December 2019 (votes, that is). What are the prospects for the second by-election?It’s not certain it will happen, but it feels quite likely. If the House of Commons sanctions Farage severely enough for not properly declaring his £5m gift from a Thailand-based cryptocurrency tycoon, then he’ll trigger a recall petition. If more than 10 per cent of the voters in Clacton feel moved enough to have another, more competitive by-election, then it will all go ahead again. In that circumstance, tactical voting around the candidate most likely to unseat Farage, ie the Conservative, would quite suddenly and unexpectedly end Farage’s brief parliamentary career and his much longer time in public life. That outcome would also be assisted if Farage’s rival on the hard/far right, Rupert Lowe, stood as a candidate for Restore Britain and split the usual Reform vote.The Count Binface vote on Thursday will basically form the base upon which the Tories will be able to attract a cohesive stop-Farage vote – not forgetting Reform UK has been sliding in national polls. Voting for Binface will make people more inclined to vote negatively again. And that is why it was foolish indeed for Farage to trigger this entirely unnecessary by-election, and bring upon himself his own humiliating exit from British politics. So the real winner of the Clacton by-election(s) will be… Kemi Badenoch.