This Thursday sees the rather unusual by-election in Clacton, triggered by Nigel Farage. The result is broadly predictable, but at least one other party leader is taking a keen interest in the constituency. Despite boycotting the contest – in common with the other major parties – Kemi Badenoch has written an open letter to constituency voters (itself probably unprecedented in a seat for which the Tories haven’t put up a candidate) promising them this week’s vote isn’t the end of the matter…What does Badenoch say?She is telling Clacton it deserves better and not to vote for Farage; she also claims he has “called this by-election not to help you but to help himself”. Specifically, she adds: “He wants to point to you and say, ‘Even after the £5m scandal, Clacton still chose me’. The people of Clacton are entitled to ask why someone would donate Nigel Farage that kind of money.”More to the point, Badenoch reminds the exhausted voters of Clacton there will probably be another by-election before too long. Parliament’s investigation into the £5m donation he was given by a Thai-based crypto tycoon has only been paused; if Farage beats Count Binface and the other 33 candidates on Thursday, the probe will resume – with the possibility of finding against the Reform leader. As she puts it: “I will put forward a serious candidate who understands that representing Clacton is a job: someone who turns up, listens, holds meetings and works for the people who live here. You deserve an MP who puts you first, rather than making every question about himself.”‘Not another one?’ Clacton’s voters could get weary (BBC)What is Badenoch up to?She spots a golden opportunity to push Farage out of the Commons, or at least give him the fright of his life. Her letter is a serious pitch to voters who used to vote Conservative but felt let down by the last administration. “We are not the same old Tories” is her message – and it would be quite the achievement to vanquish Farage himself. She’s happy to be humble: “I know that many of you are angry with the Conservatives. I understand why. Your last Conservative MP worked hard for Clacton, but at a national level things went wrong and we let people down. I am sorry for that. You were right to be angry, I was angry too. But being angry with the last Conservative government does not mean you deserve to be used by somebody else.”Could the Tories win a second by-election?Badenoch is certainly buoyed by the Tory gain in the Aberdeen South by-election last month, the first such win in Scotland for decades. Unseating Farage, who clearly has a strong local following in Clacton, is far more of a challenge. If Farage does relatively poorly against Count Binface – low turnout and less than, say, 70 per cent of the vote – he would go into any future race against the Tories somewhat weakened. The Standards Commissioner’s report might also be critical of Farage’s judgement and probity. Will there be a second by-election?It is not certain, but likely. Daniel Greenberg, the independent commissioner for standards, will make his report to the Commons Committee on Standards (which includes non-politicians). If a serious fault is found, they will propose a sanction against Farage; this will be voted on by the whole House of Commons, and the convention is that the committee’s recommendation is followed by the House (even against a sitting prime minister, as happened with Boris Johnson). Farage could seek to persuade fellow MPs it would be silly to trigger another by-election in Clacton so soon after this one, but the strength of the main parties means any such defence is doomed. If Farage’s penalty is a suspension from the Commons of 10 working days or more, a recall petition becomes possible in Clacton; if 10 per cent of registered voters in the constituency (about 7,800 people) request another by-election, it’ll go ahead.Could Farage lose the second time around?Yes. It might be remembered that when Farage, riding high, contested South Thanet for UKIP in the 2015 general election, David Cameron’s Tories threw everything they had at stopping him – and narrowly succeeded with a hardline eurosceptic candidate, Craig Mackinlay. Badenoch will be hoping for an even more dramatic coup this time. She might be assisted if Reform’s other hard-right rivals, Restore Britain, led by Rupert Lowe, decide to run against him and split the core vote. A bigger factor is tactical anti-Reform voting. This has certainly worked in a series of by-elections since the 2024 general election, most notably in Caerphilly in 2025 (Plaid Cymru being the winners), Gorton and Denton (opposition coalescing around the Greens), and with Labour “borrowing” votes in Makerfield to prevail. If Badenoch manages to galvanise such an anti-Farage vote around her Tory candidate in Clacton, the result could be seismic. Farage does enjoy a sizeable cult-like base in Clacton, but he is also despised as few politicians are, to the point of inspiring a united opposition. Therefore it’s all down to the tactical vote, the emergence of a clear challenger, and the size of the anti-Farage bloc bequeathed by Count Binface. Thursday’s events are probably just another chapter in the Farage story.