Traders on Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated prediction market, are betting that Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index report will come in soft. As of Sunday, contracts on the platform show a 68% probability that July’s month-over-month CPI rose above 0.0%, but only an 18% chance it exceeded 0.1%.
What the numbers say
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its July CPI data on August 12, and Kalshi’s contracts paint a picture of inflation that’s losing steam rather than gathering it.
On the year-over-year side, traders are pricing in roughly 52-53% odds that annual CPI topped 3.3%. The probability of it clearing 3.4% drops to just 16%.
Why prediction markets matter here
