Traders believe inflation could near 5% this year

Prices in April rose at their fastest pace since May 2023. Traders on prediction market platforms think the peak in inflation isn’t here yet.

While the headline annual inflation rate rose 3.8% last month, traders on Kalshi think it is near certain that price increases will rise above 4% in 2026, and give almost two-in-three odds that it goes above 4.5%.

Traders also see an almost 40% chance that inflation will cross 5% this year. That hasn’t happened since February 2023.

That’s significantly higher than Wall Street projections. Economists polled by FactSet forecast that inflation will peak at an average of 3.8% in the current quarter, and fall to 2.8% by the end of the year.

Households, though, are more in-line with the prediction market forecast. A University of Michigan survey released Friday found that consumers see inflation of 4.5% over the next year. On Polymarket, traders believe there is a 50% chance that U.S. inflation rises above 4.5% in 2026.