Federal Reserve policymakers are split on the path for interest rates — and Kalshi traders also seem to be divided, seeing just over 50% odds of a hike this year.
Prediction market traders on Kalshi now forecast a 54% likelihood that the Fed will raise rates this year. That's down slightly from 56% over the past day. This contract asks Kalshi traders when a hike will take place and would resolve if it happens before this year ends, before July 2027 or before 2028.
Kalshi traders see a nearly 80% chance that a hike will happen in 2028 and a 62% likelihood that it will happen before July 2027.
These results come a day after the U.S. central bank rolled out its June meeting minutes. The document said that "many participants indicated that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be within or slightly below the current target range at the end of this year."
The key interest rate is currently in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% — where it has been since December 2025.
