More than half of traders on Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated prediction market, are betting that Bitcoin will dip below $55,000 at some point before December 31. As of July 25, the contract sits at 57 cents per share, implying a 56% probability of that outcome.
Where the odds stand and how they got here
The current reading of around 56% is actually an improvement for Bitcoin bulls compared to where things stood earlier this year. Back on June 3, with Bitcoin trading in the low-to-mid $64,000 range, the probability of a sub-$55,000 print was sitting at 66%.
The contract itself is built on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index, which tracks minute-by-minute price changes. That matters because it means the contract resolves the moment Bitcoin touches $55,000, not just if it closes there. A brief wick lower on a volatile weekend is enough.
The broader prediction market picture is more bearish
