Ukraine’s civilian economy and its air defenses do not operate as separate systems – when air defense fails to protect the skies, the economic damage shows up directly in growth and financing figures, Oleksandra Betliy, an analyst at the Institute of Economic Research, said at an online panel, “Ukraine’s Economy in 2026 and 2027: Forecasts by Independent Economists”. Financing needs are closely tied to the state of Ukraine’s air defenses, Betliy said, adding that without sufficient air defense, strikes reach further into the economy, losses run higher, and the gap between what the state needs to spend and what current forecasts assume widens accordingly.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. Betliy’s warning came as three institutions presented 2026 GDP growth forecasts ranging from 1% to 1.8% at the same panel, with Dragon Capital, the KSE Institute and the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) all pointing to the same underlying drivers – war-related destruction, the Black Sea ports crisis and a partial offset from localized arms production – while diverging on how far those forces will move the numbers. Insufficient air defense allows strikes to reach businesses broadly, worsening the GDP outlook and, in turn, raising the risk of the need for additional funding that Ukraine will be forced to request from partners or find inside its own war-drained economy. Oleksandra Betliy, an analyst at the Institute of Economic Research, speaks during the event. Photo courtrecy of RRR4U (Resilience, Reconstruction and Relief for Ukraine).
Ukraine's War and Economy Aren't Separate Systems, Economist Warns
Gaps in Ukraine's air defenses translate directly into worse economic outcomes, analyst Oleksandra Betliy says, as the civilian economy and the war effort move as a single system rather than two separate tracks.
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