Recent US intelligence assessments indicate Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to test NATO’s resolve by launching a limited attack on an allied country within the next few years, according to three sources familiar with those reports.
The intelligence assessments outline several possible scenarios for Russian escalation, ranging from a cyberattack to a small-scale incursion intended to challenge NATO’s unity and commitment to Article 5, which states that an attack on one member is an attack on all, without necessarily crossing the threshold for an allied response, the sources said.
While how and when Putin might do so remains an open question, one of the sources said he is most likely to escalate in some way by targeting the Baltics or Poland. The Wall Street Journal first reported on the recent assessments.
US and NATO officials believe Putin may choose to escalate against NATO if he is unable to secure a face-saving off-ramp to the war with Ukraine, the sources added, noting the Russian president’s window for choosing his next course of action spans between now and the next few years.
Martin O’Donnell, a senior NATO military spokesperson, declined to comment on classified intelligence assessments but said NATO is “always thinking through and preparing for any number of scenarios.”
