BlackRock’s Rick Rieder has suggested that the U.S. Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates in the near term, following the release of the July 2026 employment report. The report indicated a decline in nonfarm payrolls by 23,000 and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. Rieder’s comments, highlighted by Bloomberg Markets, suggest that the employment data might prompt the Fed to reconsider any plans for a rate hike this year. This view aligns with market trends that are increasingly supportive of scenarios where the Fed opts for rate cuts instead of hikes.
The current market pricing has shifted in response to Rieder’s remarks. The probability of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 meeting has decreased to 36.5% from 44% just 24 hours ago. Similarly, the likelihood of a rate hike by the October meeting has also fallen, now standing at 49.5%. Conversely, markets suggest a potential increase in the likelihood of rate cuts, with the scenario that no rate cuts will occur in 2026 currently priced at 86.1% YES.
Rieder has been vocal about his stance on monetary policy, advocating for lower rates to avoid economic over-tightening. The recent labor market data appears to support his perspective, as it indicates a weakening that might necessitate a shift in the Fed’s approach to interest rates.
