Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says wage growth is outpacing inflation, particularly for lower-income and blue-collar workers under the Trump administration. Bessent pointed to Treasury data showing a 2% real wage gain for workers in the bottom 25% of earners based on 2025 metrics. Blue-collar workers specifically saw 1.7% wage growth in the first five months of Trump’s current term.
The numbers behind the narrative
The Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker shows 3.6% growth for the lowest income quartile as of June 2026. The top income quartile, meanwhile, reported a 12-month moving average of 3.9%.
Average hourly earnings rose 3.5% year-over-year through March 2026. After adjusting for inflation, that translates to a real wage increase of 0.3%.
Bessent used these figures to declare the end of the K-shaped economy, a term that became shorthand for a recovery where high earners surged ahead while lower-income workers treaded water.
