Fitch Ratings just drew a very specific roadmap for oil prices through the end of 2026, and the destination is significantly lower than where crude sits today. The agency’s updated outlook, published June 8, forecasts Brent crude averaging $87 per barrel for the full year but settling around $70 per barrel from September onward as oversupply conditions reassert themselves.
The summer spike and the fall that follows
Brent crude is expected to trade between $100 and $110 per barrel during the May-to-July window, driven largely by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. That narrow waterway handles roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply on any given day, and it has been effectively closed for shipping for about five months.
Fitch’s base case assumes the Strait reopens around the end of July 2026. Once it does, the agency expects prices to drop to roughly $80 per barrel in August as the market digests the return of supply. From September through year-end, the forecast settles at approximately $70 per barrel as oversupply conditions take hold.
Fitch updated its oil sector outlook to “improving” alongside the report. From a credit perspective, clarity is improvement. Companies can plan around $70 oil. They struggle to plan around $70-or-maybe-$110 oil.
