Few major issues in the Middle East unfold today without the UAE playing a role.
From backing Egypt’s 2013 military coup, to intervening in Yemen, to supporting renegade general Khalifa Haftar in Libya and the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan, the Emiratis have built a network of influence across the Horn of Africa, while investing strategically in ports, energy, technology and defence.
In less than two decades, Abu Dhabi has transformed itself from a relatively low-profile Gulf state into one of the region’s most assertive powers. How did a country of around one million citizens acquire such an outsized regional role?
The UAE’s rise is linked to its ability to capitalise on successive regional crises, beginning with the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, accelerating with the Arab Spring, and gaining strength amid Washington’s declining engagement in the Middle East.
Together, these developments created a power vacuum that Abu Dhabi filled through a combination of military capabilities, financial resources, security networks and international alliances. But the geopolitical conditions that enabled this rise are now changing, raising questions about whether the UAE’s strategy can endure.
