Key Facts
Copom meeting odds are in flux as traders weigh a cautious cutting cycle against sticky inflation driven by global energy prices, with end-2026 Selic forecasts split between 11.75% and 13%.
Fitch now sees the Selic ending 2026 at 13% a full point above its previous estimate, warning that inflation could breach the official tolerance band, a hawkish signal that will colour today’s local rate trading.
July industrial production is the data point of the day with the consensus expecting a 0.3% monthly rebound and a 0.8% annual contraction, a mixed picture that will test the thesis of a soft landing.
Homebuilder MRV is the standout corporate story as The Rio Times details its strategic pivot to land sales and policy shifts to reverse a 2024 slump, putting the rate-sensitive real-estate complex under the spotlight.
