RIYADH: Egypt’s economy is expected to grow 5 percent in fiscal 2026/27, while inflation is forecast to average 14.4 percent this year, delaying interest rate cuts until 2027, a new analysis showed.
BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, lowered its fiscal 2026/27 growth forecast from 5.2 percent, citing rising regional risks, while maintaining that the revised estimate would still mark the Egyptian economy’s strongest expansion in four years.
Despite the downgrade, growth is expected to be supported by public investment, exports, agriculture and recovering natural gas production, helping offset higher input costs and weaker regional sentiment.
Egypt’s economy has shown signs of stabilizing after the International Monetary Fund last week completed the latest review of its reform program, unlocking about $1.8 billion in financing and citing progress in restoring macroeconomic stability through exchange-rate flexibility and tighter fiscal and monetary policies.
“We forecast inflation at 14.4 percent in 2026 and 10.8 percent in 2027, reflecting higher oil prices, a likely fuel price hike and pound weakness,” BMI said in its latest analysis.
