Over the past few years the department of trade, industry and competition has rolled out sector master plans with clear targets for jobs, exports and localisation. Billions have also been committed through industrial incentives. On paper, the ambition is correct. In practice, manufacturing’s share of GDP has declined.The numbers tell the story. Statistics South Africa and World Bank data show manufacturing has stagnated around 12% of GDP over the last decade. Yet the department has committed billions in incentives since 2020 through schemes such as the Section 12I Tax Allowance Incentive. South African Reserve Bank data shows total foreign direct investment inflows were R96.5bn in 2023. During the same period, peer economies such as Vietnam grew manufacturing from 17% of GDP in 2010 to 25% in 2022. Policy intent is evident. Capital is not following.Investment decisions are being delayed. Investors cite markets with less regulatory friction and greater policy certainty elsewhere. The gap is not in design. The gap is in execution. Failures appear in two areas: accountability within the master plans, and speed in the incentive system. Addressing both will turn policy into production.Accountability first — master plans need ownersMaster plans remain a sound mechanism. Government, labour and business are brought to one table with a shared goal. Too many plans have multiple drivers and no single point of accountability for targets.Reliance on partnership as the delivery model is not new. This approach has struggled since the Growth and Development Summit of 2002 under the Thabo Mbeki administration. Partnership without designated authority produces consensus but does not produce output.Quarterly milestones and a single accountable leader per plan are required. Without them, the master plans risk becoming discussion forums instead of delivery vehicles. Industrial policy requires someone to own the number and be judged against it.Speed second — incentives must match investment cyclesTime is the second failure point. South African firms compete with companies in Vietnam, Mexico and Eastern Europe. Support in those jurisdictions is reported to be approved within a few months. In South Africa, industry reports and departmental engagements indicate incentive applications can take 12 to 18 months.By the time funding is approved, the market opportunity has moved. Boards revise capital expenditure plans. Investors shift capital elsewhere. Certainty and speed form part of the incentive itself, not just the quantum of support.Increased spending is not the answer. Faster decisions are. A clear service level agreement for incentive approvals, with published turnaround times, would improve South Africa’s competitiveness and restore investor confidence. The tools already exist. Master plans provide direction. Incentives provide leverage. A delivery mechanism with teeth is missing.What is required now is discipline. Appoint a single accountable leader for each master plan with quarterly public targets. Introduce a clear service level agreement for incentive approvals. Publish a scorecard tracking jobs, investment, and output per plan so progress cannot be hidden.Further delay is not an option. As of 2025/26, the National Treasury and department of trade, industry and competition should pilot the delivery model in three priority master plans with the highest job and export potential. Each pilot requires a named lead, a public dashboard and a clear decision timeline for incentives linked to that plan. Parliament’s portfolio committee on trade and industry should receive quarterly progress reports to ensure oversight. Implementation of current plans must take priority over announcing new ones. The test is straightforward: are factories being built, are orders being placed, are people being hired? Where the answer is no, change the manager, not the plan.Why this matters nowThe global race for investment is intensifying. Major economies are rolling out large incentive packages. Other emerging markets are moving faster on approvals. South Africa cannot afford further delays. Capital flows to jurisdictions where decisions are clear and timelines are respected. Piloting this delivery model now can produce results before the next budget cycle. Visible delivery in key sectors will signal credibility to both domestic firms and foreign investors. Proof of delivery will do more for confidence than any new announcement. The choice is not between more policy or less policy. The choice is between policy that delivers and policy that does not.• Maseko is an independent political economy analyst and researcher.Business Day
PHILIP MASEKO | From policy to production — fixing SA’s industrial delivery chain
Slow incentive approvals stall investment and factory output
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