Prediction-market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket like to bill themselves as truth machines. But LeBron James’s decision to sign with the 76ers shows there are some markets where the crowd’s consensus can be spectacularly wrong.
On Kalshi, just prior to James announcing he would join Philadelphia, roughly $226 million had been traded on which team he would choose next. In the hours leading up to James’s announcement, the 76ers were at 9%, trailing the two top contenders, the Heat and Cavaliers, as well as the Warriors. From July 2 to July 13, the Cavaliers were considered the most likely landing spot for James, although Cleveland’s chances began to dip on July 10, and Miami overtook the top spot on July 18. The Warriors’ odds were pretty low for most of the spring and summer, until a sudden spike June 30, when they shot up to almost 42%, before quickly plunging back down below 20%. In recent days, the Warriors saw another spike and sat just behind Cleveland, with Kalshi traders giving Golden State a 32.4% chance compared to the Cavaliers’ 33.7% chance.
The 76ers were at 1% until July 1, when they started ticking up as a possible destination, although it remained below 10% until roughly 20 minutes before he actually signed.
