For as long as LeBron James has been making decisions about where he’ll play professional basketball, there have been ways to wager on said decisions.Those opportunities have evolved dramatically in the 16 years since James was first a free agent. What was once limited to offshore sportsbooks is now a nine-figure market on Kalshi, where $200 million has already been traded — more than on who would win Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals.“This one’s been really popular,” said DraftKings director of sports operations Johnny Avello. “He likes to string it out and make it a show. Which is kind of good for us bookmaking.“It puts a lot of money into the pot and spreads out the action for us.”As we await an answer on where James will (likely) finish his storied career, let’s take a look at the odds for each of his pivot points, including this next one.Where will LeBron James end up?The Athletic NBA Staff and Jeshua Kidd2010: Moving to MiamiJames led the Cleveland Cavaliers to the NBA’s best record in 2009-10 and had established himself as the league’s best player, having won back-to-back MVP awards. But after Cleveland lost in the second round of the playoffs to the Boston Celtics, and James removed his jersey while exiting the court in Boston, it seemed he was destined for another city.Still, the Cavs were favored to retain him when markets opened on May 14, a day after they were eliminated and two months before he’d make “The Decision” on live TV. Miami, where James famously chose to sign, was a distant fourth.TeamOddsCavaliers-138Bulls+200Knicks+250Heat+750Nets+800Still eight years prior to the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the federal ban that once outlawed sports betting in most states, the biggest “bet” was likely made on Wall Street: “Shares in Madison Square Garden, the owners of the Knicks, jumped $1.30, or 6.4 percent, to close at $21.57,” DealBook reported a day before James’ decision. “Volume was up dramatically at 1.7 million trades, more than five times the daily average of 311,000.”2014: Coming home to ClevelandJames’ four years in Miami featured two championships sandwiched between two dispiriting losses in the NBA Finals. In 2014, the Heat looked too old and too slow as they wilted in five games against the San Antonio Spurs. But before James opted out of his contract, the odds heavily suggested he’d remain with the Heat.Here’s how the market opened, according to data from Odds Shark:TeamOddsHeat-600Cavaliers+500Clippers+700Rockets+1000Bulls+1500Lakers+2500Knicks+2500Mavericks+3000“It wasn’t a slam dunk that it was going to be either/or,” James Bisson, head of betting content at Covers.com, said of James’ choice between staying in Miami and returning to Cleveland (which he ultimately did).The market had changed since 2010, when the books offered odds on only five potential destinations. Just four years later, the books were more open to taking bets on longshots, including public teams such as the Lakers and Knicks.