The Oil PlaybookOil has rallied hard, but the story is more nuanced than simply "war equals higher prices." Technicals suggest the move is becoming stretched, while JPMorgan argues the market has remained balanced through weaker demand rather than collapsing supply. The key question now is whether that adjustment can continue if disruptions persist.Overbought
Oil's Next Move Hinges On Three Variables
The duration of the conflict may matter more than the conflict itself. JPMorgan estimates that every additional month of disruptions adds roughly $7–8/bbl to Brent.
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