PremiumThe latest escalation in the Middle East hostilities (the latest weekend developments notwithstanding) has propelled Brent up nearly 40% in July, putting it on pace for its strongest monthly gain since March. In the US, the national average gasoline price has moved decisively back above $4 per gallon for the first time since mid-June, up from $3.79 just two weeks ago and back in perilous territory for Trump's approval rating. At first glance, it appears geopolitics has once again taken the wheel in energy markets.The price action, however, is telling a more nuanced story according to the latest note from JPM's head commodity trader Natasha Kaneva (available here for pro subs).
"Why This Episode Is So Unusual": JPMorgan Calculates How Much Longer We Can Go Without Another Oil And Gas Price Surge
Each additional month adds roughly $7-8/bbl to Brent, lifting monthly average prices to around $114/bbl if disruptions extend to three months... In the previous round of escalations, negotiations began once US gasoline prices reached $4.20 and became far more urgent as prices neared $4.50.
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