The 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has dropped to -0.17, its lowest level since 2021. At the same time, stock-to-stock correlations across the equity market are sitting near record lows.
The great AI debt binge
AI-related capital expenditures are expected to hit roughly $400 billion in 2025. And here’s the part that should make your antennae twitch: an increasing share of that spending is being funded not from cash piles, but from corporate bond sales.
Meta recently issued a $30 billion bond offering. Amazon raised $25 billion with yield incentives to attract buyers. These are companies that used to sit on mountains of cash. Now they’re borrowing.
The shift shows up clearly in cover ratios, the metric that measures how easily a company can service its debt from earnings. Those ratios have fallen from around 5x to below 2x for some of these hyperscalers. In English: these companies used to earn five dollars for every dollar of debt payments. Now it’s closer to two.
