Research from the Stanford Digital Economy Lab found that software developer employment among workers aged 22 to 25 fell nearly 20% by September 2025 compared to late-2022 levels, right around the time OpenAI’s chatbot went mainstream. For young developers in roles most exposed to AI automation, the relative decline hit 16%.
Before ChatGPT launched in November 2022, programming-heavy jobs were growing at an annual rate of nearly 5%.
The numbers paint a stark picture
A Federal Reserve report released in April 2026 quantified the damage more broadly. Job growth in US programming roles nearly halved after ChatGPT’s launch, translating to roughly 500,000 fewer jobs expected over a three-year period.
The year-over-year contraction for 22-to-25-year-olds in AI-exposed occupations ran at 4.2%, compared to just 1.7% in less-exposed fields.
