Non-communicable diseases – heart disease, stroke, diabetes, cancer – are no longer just a rich-country problem. Across Africa, they are becoming the leading cause of death, driven in part by a simple and overlooked culprit: what people drink.
Globally, 2.2 million new cases of type 2 diabetes and 1.2 million new cardiovascular disease cases were attributable to sugar-sweetened beverages in 2020 alone, with the highest burdens falling on sub-Saharan Africa. A recent time-series study across nine African countries found that rising sugary drink sales between 2010 and 2024 were closely associated with increasing rates of type 2 diabetes, particularly in countries undergoing rapid urbanisation.
Yet most African governments have done little about it.
As health economists working on these diseases, we wanted to quantify exactly what a targeted tax on sugary drinks could achieve, and whether the numbers were large enough to compel action.
Our study focused on Egypt, one of the most populous countries in the region and one where the health and economic burden of non-communicable diseases is already severe.
