Col. Mark Cancian has highlighted a strategic issue facing the United States military, noting that the U.S. is depleting critical missile stockpiles in its ongoing conflict with Iran, known as Operation Epic Fury. This depletion could potentially affect the U.S.’s readiness for other major conflicts, particularly with China. The conflict, which resumed full-scale strikes in July 2026 after a ceasefire, has led to significant consumption of key missile systems such as THAAD interceptors, Patriot missiles, and Precision Strike Missiles. Markets appear to interpret this as a strain that might impact the likelihood of reaching a U.S.-Iran deal involving reconstruction funding.
The potential depletion of U.S. missile stockpiles has implications for prediction markets, specifically those surrounding a possible U.S.-Iran deal in 2026. Market participants have priced the likelihood of Iran Reconstruction Funding being included in such a deal at 26% for 2026, a decrease from 37% a week ago. This drop suggests that participants view the missile depletion as potentially complicating diplomatic negotiations. The market for a final U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by August 13, 2026, also reflects low confidence, with only a 1.6% probability priced in.
